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Estimated Economic Effects of Proposed Import Relief Remedies for Steel

Executive Summary
I. Introduction
II. How Did We Get Here?
III. Estimated Impacts of the Proposed Remedies
Technical Appendix


I.  Introduction

On December 19, the U.S. International Trade Commission (ITC) formally sends to the President several recommendations for restraints on steel imports.  Most of the Commissioners will recommend tariffs ranging from 8 to 40 percent, depending on the steel product.  One Commissioner will recommend quotas.  Under the statute, the President must decide no later than March 6 whether to provide relief and, if so, the amount of the relief. 

This study reports the results of a comprehensive analysis of the likely impact of the imposition of the ITCs proposed remedies on the U.S. economy generally, as well as the specific impacts on the U.S. steel industry, and U.S. steel-consuming industries.  It employs state-of-the-art modeling techniques the same used by the U.S. Government and international organizations to measure the impacts on the economy of the imposition of a range of tariffs on steel imports into the United States.  Section II summarizes the history of the investigation.  Section III presents the results of the modeling exercise.  Appendices present summaries of the ITC Commissioners votes, and a technical appendix details the model used to obtain the results presented in Section III.




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